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Haiti from Dominican Republic on the public impact of the social sciences

Several scholars have returned in recent days, the old debate about the social relevance of the work of scientists (including social scientists, despite the redundancy). Stephen Walt, for example, writes in an article in Foreign Policy for social science policy-oriented. Something very similar to the argument put forward by Craig Calhoun, Social Science Research Council and professor at New York University, this text . Calhoun however refers to what he called relevance and Public Knowledge public (to avoid the term "policy-making", and his distinction of what academic knowledge "pure"). Calhoun text of a paragraph that I copied below, is quite interesting. While not fully take communion with the author's ideas, I think he argues his position well, and that leaves some key elements for reflection.

Social scientists engaging public questions need to offer truth. If scholarly knowledge has no authority, if it doesn’t provide good reasons to believe that some courses of action are better than others, or riskier, or less reliable, then it doesn’t have a distinctive value. But the authority of scholarly knowledge isn’t and can’t be perfect. Science is, after all, in large part a process of learning from errors, not just a process of accumulating truths. And especially in social science, truths are often highly contextual and conditional, predictions of what is more or less likely under certain circumstances, not statements of absolute and unvarying causal relationships. Social scientists bring real knowledge, but inevitably incomplete knowledge. The truths of social science are, moreover, graspable in different ways. They have to be communicated and this always means rendering them in ways that foreground certain aspects more than others, that illuminate some dimensions and leave others in the shadows. Knowledge is part of culture, not easily and fully abstractable from the rest of culture. But it is partly through the effort to communicate knowledge to non-specialists that researchers (like teachers) see new implications of what they know, new dimensions to issues they thought they understood fully, and sometimes limits to their own grasp of what they thought were established truths.

Francamente, yo todavía no he conocido a ningún científico/a social ignore the reality or public sphere, or who refuses to talk to "practicioners" and listen. Quite the opposite. So in some ways, I see where the problem lies. In other words, it's hard to put a face "like-minded scholars" focused on small matters referred Walt, but maybe it's live in hiding in their caves, solving "problem sets" and / or doing experiments.

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New Collaborations

catalanolectores For the carpet, today I start my contributions to the electronic journal of Vallès Oriental (my district) Aravalle . If you are interested, you can read my writing from here .

(The title This week is wrong, of course, should be "Les coses that i importem deixem to them that Duane")

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Income Distribution in Spain

Using data from the Tax Office ( Report 2007) gives this pretty graph, which reveal interesting features about our country:

• The majority of the population earns less than the national average income (which is statistically logical)
• The average gross monthly income (right column) is below € 1,900 and indeed, the "peak maximum is around € 1,000.
• A second peak anomalous around the € 3.000/mes, which is what they earn higher fees, executives and highly paid professional occupations.
  
• Among the more affluent, there are peaks lower than € 5,000, € 9,000 and € 20,000 in monthly income, not necessarily derived from earned income, of course. But in any case, it is interesting that the shape of the distribution is not smooth, but contains several peaks, indicating that the market says "thresholds" or steps pay more or less clear.
  

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The Bread and Circus Back Felipe Calderón

On Saturday October 10 federal agents took six thousand facilities Luz y Fuerza del Centro (LyFC) in Mexico City, Puebla, Hidalgo and Morelos, in the Republic of Mexico. With this action and the corresponding decree issued by the president of this country, Felipe Calderón, is liquidating the company that supplies power to the center of the country, leaving the street 41 000 25 000 active employees and retirees.

Calderon's argument for ordering the closure of LyFC is that the company is unprofitable, and has a deficit of more than 3,700 million dollars. Inefficiency blamed for the "ominous salaries of employees." But let us see in detail: the lowest salary in the company Luz y Fuerza del Centro is about $ 600 and the highest is $ 1,200, plus benefits. The media launch attacks against the Mexican Union of Electricians "accusing" that the collective bargaining agreement gives them undue benefits such as discounts on electricity rates or refunds for expenses for meals outside the workplace. Before the onslaught against the company, and fueled by the media, some Mexican public opinion is completely devoted to cheers to the action taken by Calderón, arguing that these electrical workers are not as poor as they should, and have privileges and luxuries that do not deserve. In other words, the crime of these workers is that they are not starving, as it is the duty historic working class.

LyFC The settlement involves not only the imminent privatization of the electricity industry, but adds a new figure on the unemployment rate already during the administration of Calderón has grown by 79%. But electricians are not the only target of massive layoffs perpetrated by the Mexican government. Does no more than a month on the same Finance Minister announced 10 thousand new layoffs by the disappearance of three secretaries of state (that of Tourism, Agrarian Reform and Civil Service). In times of global crises in economies with higher proportions of public employment are those that seem to be resisting better to the debacle, these measures aim to negative consequences not only for workers in the electrical industry, but also for the rest of the Mexican people.

In another area, the figures in Mexico are no less alarming: five in 1600 "executed" in so far this year. In ten months has exceeded the total number of murders attributable to the drug occurred during the administration of former President Vicente Fox This is despite the fact that the State has deployed its forces in the streets leading to a militarization of the country, which is taxpayers a financial gap of more than double the resources for LyFC. As this year, the drug war have you spent nearly 8 billion dollars. The absence of detailed data on victims and the perpetrators of this violence does not permit a proper evaluation of the policy. If the numbers do not lie, it seems that if there is a company that urgently settle for inefficient and costly, is the so-called War on Narco.

Despite the critical economic situation, employment and security that exists in Mexico, Calderon's approval rating last August was 62.4%, a level that has held since January 2007, except perhaps the escalation of March this year, where Following the panic engendered by the epidemic of swine flu rose to 68%. If these statistics are reliable, which reflect the effectiveness of social control through the manipulation of the media, the use of force and surprise measures such as blow to independent trade unionism and epidemiological panic. Moreover, outside of Mexico, Calderon has some good reputation. Like with Colombian President Alvaro Uribe, are virtually nonexistent articles critical of this policy in the English press. For example, the decree closing LyFC was applauded in the media, which was presented as a remedial measure to the allegedly poor service they provide LyFC workers and a key anti-corruption measure. As pointed Vicenç Navarro in his article "The double standard of the media" (Public Domain, July 16, 2009), the absence of critical voices against Calderón enters serious opposition to the articles critical of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, among others, and "sympathy for those presidents on the sidelines, leading to question the ideological diversity of the English media.
Usually at this most troubling is that Calderón is confirmed as a case of democratic president, despite reaching 'confused' power-manages to win and maintain the social popularity from clear dyes undemocratic measures. Another president who, facing the threat of the 'crime', the 'narco' (or a 'guerrilla') acts that the limits of democratic presidential warlordism become dangerously blurred. Other president before which, however, gives the domestic and international public opinion by their shapes and achievements, and at those critical voices are drowned with blows of a truncheon pen.

Violeta Vázquez-Rojas and Laia Balcells

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Dear readers of The Carpet,

We finally back. During the past five months has been the Carpet parálisi almost total. Our respective tasks have been the main reason for this absence: Alex has been busy at the World Bank. Lluís has been finishing his doctoral thesis, which has already placed and quickly defend in Oxford. I've been locked up writing the thesis, I placed earlier this month at the Yale Graduate School.

We are well, happy but tired. And eager to resume the project of the carpet. To start again, posting an article I wrote a few days ago with friend and fellow linguist (PhD candidate at NYU), Violeta Vázquez-Rojas, in the light of events held in Mexico the night in this country is qualified for the World Cup, and, of course, have little to do with football.

We can recover the rhythm that once had the carpet, and quality-both of the articles posted and their readers.

A big hug and thank you for your patience!

Lluís, Alexander and Laia

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GA Cohen, rigorously Marxist philosopher On torture

Finally El Pais published an article on the death of the political philosopher Jerry Cohen (Oxford). By now we thought we would let go the news happily as did other newspapers (except World ) We are especially pleased to be Jahel Queralt responsible for writing the obituary, she knew Cohen well as intellectually and personally.

Jahel Queralt by Lange

philosopher GA (Jerry) Cohen died Aug. 5 in Oxford (UK), at age 68. He liked to say that although having been brought up to believe something is no reason to believe, we can not ignore that the accident of birth explains, in large part, what one professes.

How lucky was that Marxism Gerald Allan (GA) was born on April 14, 1941, in Montreal, a Jewish militant in the Communist Party of Canada. During his youth, while studying philosophy at McGill University, he joined various communist organizations, but the infighting, the Soviet invasion of Hungary (1956) and Czechoslovakia (1968), and personal trips to Eastern Europe in the sixties ended his pro-Soviet.

However, it was a disappointment to Glucksman, but continued to believe that socialist values, equality and community, deserved loyalty. A better think those ideals devoted his entire life. In 1961 he went to Oxford to study with Isaiah Berlin and, after a period of 20 years as professor of philosophy at University College London, he returned in 1985 to fill the position of Chichele Professor at All Souls College, Oxford, until retired in the spring of 2008.

Two phases in his career

His career is clearly divided into two phases. The first was dominated by his interest in the philosophy of history of Marx and culminated with the publication of history theory of Karl Marx: a defense in 1978. The defense in question was to prove that Marxist materialism is true, but it can be reconstructed regardless of methodological holism and the dialectic that the more attached to the Communist Manifesto had been enthroned as essential elements of Marxism. Cohen came to Marx through the sieve of the philosophy of science and social theory, and the result was that the class struggle was not the driving force of history but, if anything, they were the productive forces.

In a context dominated by Althusser's interpretation of Marxist ideas, reading Cohen was almost considered a positivist heresy had not been for the support they had their ideas in an Anglo community little given to obscurantism. Along with other scholars such as John Elster, Adam Przewosrki and Philippe van Parijs, formed the "analytical Marxism" and, in the eighties, were devoted to distilling the ideas of Marx's ideology. They called themselves Group in September.

Since the nineties, he abandoned the Marxian exegesis. The revolution that was to lead to an egalitarian society did not come. He realized that equality and community do not define a state of things inevitable, but are values \u200b\u200bthat must be supported with good reasons and articulate principles. While Margaret Thatcher did her best to bury socialism, he defended him from his chair without falling into a social democracy decaffeinated.

Some will say that the place to change things is not the pulpit, but the street. But Cohen thought that the best we can do an intellectual is to think about the rest. There is lack of commitment, but modesty. The second stage works have contributed greatly to the debate on justice with different arguments, designed to show that we live in a more egalitarian society, because, as he said, it does not take the capitalist to go against socialism, enough think that socialism is not possible.

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analytical

The Economist this week published an interesting article on torture and public opinion. Put comparison data Spain in the best position when it comes to condemning torture. Along with France and Britain, just over 80% of the population would ban all forms of torture, about five points below the two countries, just over 10% would accept some kind of torture.

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one more bite, please ...

If anyone is wondering why people are more slender in Spain than in the U.S., here are the raw data from a curious correlation. We leave to your interpretation ...

image Animate

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ideological diversity of the Spanish media, a response to Vicenç Navarro Empire

Now in its delivery weekly in the newspaper Público, professor of political science at the UPF, Vicenç Navarro, offers a reflection on the plurality of media that is in line with the discussions that we sometimes have in the carpet. The article begins:

One of the biggest problems that English democracy is very limited ideological diversity that exists in the media of the country's largest circulation. And it is easy to prove. (read more ...)

And to prove it, Professor Navarro goes to the cutoff of anecdotal evidence that supports their argument. The Article above, of course, journalistic standards, but scores a rather poor if analyzed from scientific standards and from the empirical evidence we have today on the characteristics of the English media system in comparison with other countries.

So what really is no pluralism in Spain as Professor Navarro says? On the one hand if we follow the thesis of Hallin and Manchini (in his book Comparing Media Systems -considered manual subject header), media systems in the Mediterranean, which includes Spain, the media are closely involved in political conflicts and tend to have a vocation of editorializing on political developments. Citing these experts "when it comes to contentious issues, it is common to see very sharp political differences in the English media, manifested in disputes holders in the selection and emphasis on articles so as to images and a bitter debate in the editorial "(pg.98)

Not long ago put a particularly grotesque about this issue in a class I did in the Summer of Teruel. On February 13, 2007, the two main means of communicating our country confused the audience with two conflicting headlines about the same event:

In fact theoretically slightly editorialized (an expert report of March 11) each half interpret "ideological" content to make it consistent their editorial. This question was perhaps the world means more vocation editorialized. In effect, the newspaper was interested in the pockets of the explosions were other components outside the Goma 2 to hint (which for some is synonymous media environments to demonstrate) linking ETA to the plot.

But to avoid to be accused also be providing anecdotal evidence, then turn back again to the work of the experts. The professor of public opinion of the Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Anton Castromil, performed a very interesting study about the partisan leanings English newspapers during the last election campaign. In his study collected a sample of 2000 articles from different newspapers and classified according to their ideological bias. The results are as follows:

Chart: tone of the articles of major newspapers in the election campaign of 2008 (Castromil, 2008)

Tone article: (PP = PP articles favorable or unfavorable to the PSOE / / PSOE PSOE = articles favorable or unfavorable to the PP)

The data show that although a large volume of information is presented as neutral, if there are clear ideological bias in the English media very consistent with what common sense tells us. Other quantitative evidence of the politicization of the media I offered you a few weeks ago (look two scores below or click here ). There was evidence that the consumption of print media was clearly influenced by the ideology of the reader and in recent years, the ideological polarization has tended to increase.

Part Vicenç Navarro is right, sometimes it enojante seen as in some subjects, there was a single thought introduced in both the media and among politicians of our country. The rejection of Hugo Chavez is perhaps the best example of this (hence the value of the article Vicenç) But that should not blind us to the degree of politicization of the print media in our country are higher than in other democracies around us.

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10 lessons on the Swedish

Stephen Walt published in Foreign Policy wonderful summary of the book by Piers Brenon The decline and fall of the British Empire , which draws 10 lessons for the event are the U.S. empire. Highly recommended.

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Thatcherism, by Victor Lapuente

Victor Lapuente, a colleague of ours and a reader of The carpet, made an interesting contribution today in El Pais. Part of what he writes in the article was discussed some time ago in a post moquetil, which we are proud.

Thatcherism on whether the Swede is a good idea to have some discrepancies, as I noted in that discussion, for me the Swedish Thatcherism has little to Thatcherism, that its "export" will be more complicated because the initial conditions will not be the same in places outside the Social Democratic Scandinavia. And we should be skeptical, at least, their chances of success.

In any case, congratulations Victor, and we continue discussing and writing a lot.

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Ideology and media consumption, 1993-2008 Aeronaut

Contrary to what happens in most Anglo-Saxon countries, the media of our country are closely engaged with certain political and partisan interests. The independence of our media is rather low, as discussed Hallin and Mancini in his book "Comparing media systems" (2004), the agendas of the English media obey not only the news judgments about the value of the news but also respond to questions merely political.

In a way, the choice of media in Spain is characterized by high levels of external pluralism and low levels of internal pluralism, that is characterized by a variety of media with single-colored views that, taken together, set up a kiosk ideologically heterogeneous.

The lack of internal pluralism in the media in our country makes it easy to avoid exposure to the English and mixed messages when they consume information differing views policy. The English who want to protect views contrary to theirs should be limited simply to consume media related, as COPE rarely disturb its audience conservative nor progressive messages BE subject to its progressive hearing the hassle of comparing their ideas with conservative.

is for this reason that media consumption in Spain is characterized by high doses of ideological polarization. A year ago we showed in this entry that media consumption in Spain is highly influenced by the ideology of the consumer. As a result, most media have not a hearing ideologically moderate or centrist, but that reflects the highly ideological "sectarianism" of the media's editorial line.

This year I had the opportunity to take charge of the chapter on media in the 'Report on Democracy in Spain ' published by the Alternative Foundation sy, among other things, I tried to study this phenomenon in more detail : ideological polarization in media consumption. Among the various topics I discuss in this chapter, show a very telling graphic about how the ideological polarization in media consumption has evolved from 1990s to today.

Figure: Evolution of polarization (measured by standard deviation) of average consumers of the mainstream media in Spain. Data: CNEP-1993, Demoscopia-2004 and CIS-2008) .

the graph leads to two interesting conclusions:

(i) the press is the means to greater polarization . The ideological differences of the audience of the major newspapers of the country far superior to those of television and radio.

(ii) polarization ideology in the press and radio remained stable during the years 1993 and 2004, but this has increased substantially over the past four years (the opposite is true with television.)

The fact that the ideology increasingly amount when buying a newspaper or tune in a station is an indication that the media today show a more extreme ideological profile and less pluralistic. The growing ideological polarization in media consumption is a clear metaphor for what has happened in recent years in the political life of our country, characterized by increasing doses of tension.

But some newspapers and radios are more responsible than others for this growing ideological polarization. What? More on the Report on Democracy in Spain 200 9

______________________

... or Monday: Alternatives Foundation presents the Report on Democracy 2009, the Cercle de Barcelona Economics-Provence 198 - at the hands of Pere Portabella Josep Ramonoeda Joaquin Estefania Juan Manuel Eguiegaray and Julian Santamaria. Is anybody coming?

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Catalog (II)

We encontarmos at a time sensitive to both carriers and users thereof. Major accidents such as the Air France Airbus three weeks ago in the Atlantic Ocean, in Barajas Spanair, or the Continental in Buffalo, in less than a year, do not help improve the financial status of companies that are treading water and seek ways to stay afloat by extravagant (for example, British Airways is asking employees to work free for a month.) Despite this situation and partly because many of us can not stop traveling, I wanted to recover the catalog of Aeronaut , we publish on the carpet for quite some time. I updated assessments and incorporated some new-from the experience of some recent trips. Also, I have set numerical grade (average check "eyeball") to companies. And I encourage readers to contribute the carpet in the evaluation, so that it can be a useful catalog for many.

Note that most companies "considered" make the Barcelona-New York route (with or without scale to other sites), and this is the one most often realize that writing this blog. But, again, allowed other companies.

SWISS AIRLINES (average: 9)

is great for cheap liners, with the only drawback of the trip is slightly longer than usual. For example, the flight Geneva - New York can take about nine hours. The biggest advantage of the company is the measure of the cabin crew (always friendly and smiling.) We also thank the usual punctuality, the cleanliness of the seats and bathrooms, and quality of food, which may eventually include Swiss chocolate mousse dessert and Camembert cheese. In Geneva and Zurich airports also are very comfortable transfers, and can even make good coffee. There are smoking areas that are not cages. The prices are usually affordable and, I guess to fill passages, find good deals last minute flights. AVIANCA

(average: 8)

is a great company, with direct flights from Bogota to Madrid and Barcelona, \u200b\u200ba crew of as pleasant, decent food, entertainment on demand (with individual screens.) I've been told is the best company to fly to Colombia, and I think so. I was very happy with my flight Bogota-Madrid, which also came and went with great punctuality. DELTA

(average score: 7)

has advantages and disadvantages are very similar to those of U.S. Airways as regards international flights. With direct flights to Barcelona from JFK, the journey is quite short. The flight is fast, but the plane is not less than ten food. The stewards are nicer than those of U.S. Airways, and not have to pay or the headphones or alcohol, which itself needs to be done in the first. However, there is individual television screens if you have to sit in a window probably can not see the movie. IBERIA

(average score: 7)

Iberia is fine if you travel from / to Madrid, but go to Barcelona is generally a nightmare because they almost always have to go through Terminal 4 and used to be torture (by the way I wrote this almost two years ago, and yesterday I had the same feeling of chaos and disorganization in T4!). I have come to spend more than five hours before reaching Barajas Barcelona. Iberia food is good and clean aircraft. Television screens are small, however, and not very spacious aircraft. Is good you can get more or less cheap tickets if you catch the deals they do. I do not dislike in terms of price and quality, but again, the big problem is Barajas Terminal 4. Alex says that the good thing is that Iberia also let you repeat drink every time you want, do not charge for it, including wine, and no one knows, but have 6 bottles of champagne to rich tourist class that almost no one asks but that is a delight to eat. :)

JET BLUE (average score: 7)

low cost is a company that offers a very decent service. I flew from New York to Bogotá with stops to Orlando, arriving with great punctuality and avoid delays and complications relating to the Caribbean climate. We were offered "snack" on both routes. The crew is not as pleasant, though. U.S. AIRWAYS

(average: 6)

is a great company for U.S. domestic flights. High punctuality and diligence (ie soft drinks and 'pretzels' included in all journeys, even short). Tiny flying to airports such as New Haven and central base from Philadephia Airport, which say it works very well. Not as good, however, so kindly referred to the crew, cleaning, and food on transatlantic flights. The big advantage is that it has direct flights to El Prat (Barcelona) or Venice airport, so the trip is short (the way Philadelphia - BCN can last 7 hours and little). The major drawbacks are that the planes are old, the bathrooms are not very clean, food is basically plastic, and the hostesses are not very nice. You have to buy tickets well in advance to get affordable prices. A last minute are very expensive.

CLICKAIR (average: 5) Pretty

disaster, but act responsibly when disasters like strikes by air traffic controllers and the like. As a company 'low cost', and has all the same problems: buses to go to the track, not including food and drink, trouble in the plane with luggage, etc.etc. RYANAIR

(average: 3)

Travel with Ryanair is almost like a joke. It's cheap, yes, but not enough to be treated like a sheep to cattle. I do not know where to start: tail to bill and to embark, uncontrolled passage (for the lack of stewards / as), airports far from the cities of destination, 'bingo' in the plane (¡!!!), horrible driving by drivers (why is that? still do not understand: I travel with Ryanair if I get dizzy, I notice that my ears are popping, and landing seems to be an aerobatic flight. It's because the planes are too large for such short trips? If any reader can provide information, I will be very grateful), uncomfortable seats.

AIR PLUS COMET (average: 2)

All problems of a company like Ryanair for intercontinental travel. A disaster in every way, including tardiness and lack of information. Prices are not very different from those of scheduled airlines and the feeling of insecurity is much higher. I would not recommend it for intercontinental flights. BRITISH AIRWAYS

(by John)

My company of choice every time I come and go. Looking ahead, the thing goes for 600 €. The planes are the best I've flown, the service has always been very English, proper and polite. The food is passable. And the best entertainment on board. Recently improved its system and is now "On Demand". That is, there are about 15-20 movies to choose from, and you can see in DVD mode: when you want and can pause and rewind as you please. The music selection is also impressive. Only Rock section had names like Arcade Fire, Maximo Park and Arctic Monkeys, reaching about 10 CDs just like that. And I leave the TV programs that offer because they never look at, really.

"British problem? The scale at Heathrow airport is the busiest I've seen in my life. Going through the security checkpoint can be a real pain in the ass. LUFTHANSA

(by John)

I have only caught once, so do not you toméis as very representative. However, although the planes are relatively large, is not a lot of space and, worse, are shared screen. For those who, like me, they lack the rigor movie, that's a problem. Another problem is that the scale is obviously in Germany (Frankfurt, usually), making it the longest transoceanic flight. AIR INDIA

(by John)

(Giggles not, eny?) It does not fly to Spain, but has cheap flights to Paris and London. Planes are late model (Boeing 797 "?), With 3 +5 +3 seats (as you can imagine, going through 5 is a Peñaza), crew are SuperCorrect and the food is surprisingly good for airline. Obviously, a Hindu, so if you like, because you can even enjoy. Problems? The flights are to Newark and the choice of seats on the flight from Europe is very limited. Planes coming from India and only stop to let people down. Those who go to India to U.S. continue in the same plane. Whereupon, to get on, you find the plane almost full, and that is where, when checking in, whatever you feel with your companion travel. To me that I had a little moral. AMERICAN AIRLINES



I have not had any problems traveling with AA in U.S. but I have commented that it is a company with many incidents. The other day, two acquaintances took over 48 hours of counting to get to Bogota. They were in Miami two days with almost no news of her flight. Obviously, this does not give very good reputation to the company.

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7-J, "again right? The Carpet Meets

I leave my collaboration on Public , I hope to make up my absolute silence during this election campaign.

7-J, "again right?

The victory of the PP in the elections of 7-J should not be interpreted as the beginning of a new electoral majority in Spain, as claimed Mayor Ear from the balcony of Genoa on election night last Sunday. The people's victory was clear, but not compelling enough to draw reliable conclusions from what would have happened in a general election.

The truth is that on Sunday the English did not vote exactly as if it were a simulation of the general, mainly because the continuity of government was not involved. Therefore, citizens could leave the strategic calculus on one side and "vote with your heart," as proposed by IU during the election campaign. On the other hand, those dissatisfied with the Government could make a light punishment vote: it was the perfect opportunity for those who wanted to send a protest but it was thereby contributing to a change of government.

This pattern different from that generated when voting, both in Spain and the rest of the EU, the major parties and, in particular those in the Government usually harvested worse in European elections. In our country, the party that occupies the Moncloa tends to lose in these elections an average of 3.3 percentage points to the nearest general, a figure very similar to that of other EU countries. The only exception to this regularity was held at the 2004 European, most likely because they were in full moon Honey Zapatero's first term. The results of 7-J represent a return to normal voting patterns unfavorable to the Government that usually occurs in such elections.

This time, the protest vote has been widespread throughout Europe. All heads of government of the 15 old EU members have seen their parties retreated with respect to their national elections. The electoral decline of the ruling parties in Europe has been, on average, slightly more than 8 percentage points. It is, in effect, results that respond to traditional anti-government bias "of the European elections. Still, the severity of punishment leaves no doubt that the economic crisis also has been an adverse factor for all EU governments.

Given this context as unfavorable to the European ruling parties, the PSOE has been known particularly graceful exit from the situation. This time the socialist government has seen its electoral support by 5 percentage points. This is, without doubt, decreasing more than the average loss of 3.3 points from previous races in Europe, but punishment is significantly lower than most neighboring countries. It is therefore an acceptable loss to the Government if we take into account the poor performance of their European counterparts and the devastating effects of the economic crisis on employment in our country. In

Indeed, part of the descent of the PSOE in respect of last year's general due to the demobilization of the electorate in Andalusia and Catalonia, and the significant decline in the latter region, where the socialist vote has fallen by nearly 10 percentage points. Catalan socialists have always been very adept at capturing the vote of fear when the PP is threatening to win the election. That is why the PSC has insisted the European elections in reissue the anti-PP successful campaign that gave such good results last year. This time the PSC has tried to frighten the Catalan electorate filling the streets with posters showing pictures of Aznar, Berlusconi and even former President Bush. But Catalonia has shown that the threat of a conservative European Parliament does not have the same rejection that the threat of a tenant in the Moncloa popular. Although this time the PSC has not achieved the desired results, would be a mistake to conclude that an anti-PP also fail in a hypothetical general election which decided the national government.

On the other hand, Izquierda Unida retains its two MEPs and the same percentage of votes in the 2008 general. This stability should not, however, blind us to the failure that these results represent the formation of the left. IU has missed the extraordinary opportunity offered him such a priori elections. Not only the single district electoral system reduces the incentive to vote strategically in many areas of Spain, but experience in other European countries shows that the minority parties, ideologically more extreme and more Eurosceptic positions, are often the favorite refuge plenty of discontent and protest vote in such elections. However, UI has been unable to articulate a strategy to attract potential punishment vote derived from the economic crisis and growing loss of trust in European institutions in our country. At this point, and hardly surprising. The history of UTI is missed opportunities, perhaps we are simply dealing with a chapter, but leaves many of us a real taste of epilogue.

The margin of victory of the PP can not assess the 7-J as the consolidation of a new majority in Spain, but it may be a cyclical change in the internal battle PP. Sunday's results definitely shielding Mariano Rajoy as the candidate for the upcoming elections. But avoid this noise that remains in the party? Lluis

Orriols is a political scientist and researcher at the University of Oxford

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5 Years

The June 9, 2004 this blog was born with a modest idea to keep in touch at half dozen students, who in their time together at the Foundation Juan March had become really good friends. Some went to make the Americas, others to the UK, and a couple would remain in Madrid, not for long. It seems that political science is doomed to exile in Spain, right?

We soon realized that some of the issues that we tried, the less personal, more people were interested ( duh!), So we started a little plant growing in that direction. Gradually, we learned on the fly, and especially you. We learned to be clearer to present the "facts" that our grandmother was able to understand what we said, to be kind to the bitter criticism, and we saw how that magically makes the other kind. And frankly, in those little highlights, in which a columnist for El Pais (Soledad Gallego Díaz) or MP (Rosa Díez) discloses your mini-research in the media-sin in your life you've seen this person - we felt a little proud. But most of those specific events, which has somehow justified to continue shelling surveys and data, has been your encouragement, participation and, of course, your patience with our biases varied.

In the coming days and weeks again have the pace as before, once we get rid of the ivy of reality we have been so busy lately. So, as they say in Puerto Rico literalized English, thanks to follow "patronizing"!

Happy Birthday, Green Carpet .

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Uruguay: Anatomy of a Perfect Reform

During the last century and a half Uruguay has been the private estate of the Colorado Party and National Party. But after the victory in the presidential Vázquez 2005, the leftist coalition Frente Amplio took power with a long-awaited redistributive agenda.

One of the first priorities of the new cabinet was to approve a more equitable tax reform . In Uruguay, as is usually For other small countries, equality is a value that scores high in the polls. And it is highly highly correlated with satisfaction with democracy in the region . It is true that levels of poverty and inequality (0.45) in Uruguay are the lowest in Latin America, but the long corporatist tradition of the country, refurbished and open trade and capital liberalization that occurred in the nineties have pointed out quite unfair distribution of tax burden, which rests above all on the shoulders of workers [formal] and the pockets of poor households. Same

tax burden, but a more equitable income distribution
Tabare
The government wanted to increase the vertical and horizontal equity of the tax system, and to this end should reduce the high consumption tax, which mainly affect the poor, and increase the weight and progressive income taxes.

• The income tax was more progressive and increased for the wealthy, especially the 10% richest, which saw an increase of 150% compared with the previous system:

• excise taxes fell for everyone, especially the poorest, since that consume most of their income:

• The tax burden was more just , more efficient, less distortion in the economy, and closer to Europe (with a balanced mix of direct and indirect taxes) . Inequality and poverty after taxes fell slightly, especially when making commodities more affordable to the lowering of VAT, but also the new tax system provides future governments with the tools to increase revenues if they want to expand policies social (or the army, of course). is true that the best combat inequality through spending social taxes that - but you always need to have the money first:

reform equema became clear the winners and losers of : businessmen protested, and the most affected groups were expressed, mainly doctors, lawyers and other highly paid professions, falling in the richest 10%. But again, the prevalent sense of equality was a social value that Uruguay should pursue its resistance-probably mitigated the story would be very different in America, "and this was added to the cost countermeasures against this tax reform: improved overall quality of public services, especially universal health care. Bravo

Tabare.

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The worst script Angeles Gonzalez-Sinde

The new minister of culture Angeles Gonzalez-Sinde has not enjoyed the traditional 100-day truce. His nomination was greeted with great hostility by many bloggers and internet users because of its controversial statements about the Internet, speed and downloads. Criticism of the new minister did not stay in cyberspace as the traditional media echoed the controversy, amplifying the potential harmful effects.

For this reason, it was hoped that the controversy would end up sinking the popularity of the minister, and so credited the new CIS barometer Sinde which positions as the minister of the new executive lowest rated with a score of 3.5, approaching the record levels offering us Magdalena Alvarez. Fortunately for her, Sinde is the least known member of the executive, for a 63 percent claim not to know the new minister. Not that it is a unique figure for a newcomer to politics, but perhaps it was expected that his controversial nomination would have helped at least to be better known than a new one in the profession, Ángel Gabilondo.

But the most surprising of the notes that Los Angeles offers Gonzalez-Sinde is that his bad evaluation from (relatively), especially on the left. If we compare the note with the note Sinde half of the new executive as the center-left voters (PSOE natural ideological space) we can see that the minister is the worst Sinde valued in relative terms. On average, people valued the center-left to the minister about a point below the average of the executive, a difference well above the other ministers and only about Beatriz Corredor. It thus appears that the left has a clear problem with the new minister of culture, which is certainly not good news for President Zapatero that his government crisis should have been capable of restoring the confidence of his new ministers left the electorate.

To see more clearly that, in effect, the left is particularly unhappy with the new minister of culture we can compare it with the notes of a new minister from the party apparatus: Manuel Chaves . See the following chart that compared the two ministers noted with the average of all the executive:

(graph: note Chaves / Sinde least average score of the executive, by ideology)

While valuation relative (compared with the average government) Manuel Chaves is higher among voters left and is down among the right, the opposite occurs with Gonzalez-Sinde. The new minister of culture gets a worse rating among citizens on the left and right increases between.

It thus appears that the controversy generated from the network has had special resonance among the natural ideological space of the PSOE. Undoubtedly, Gonzalez-Sinde start could not have been worse.

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30 years of Thatcher (ii) Some notes over 30 years of Thatcher

Origins. The rise of Thatcher in the Conservative Party first and then the British government has its origin in the poor performance of the U.S. economy, the historical defeat of the Conservatives in 1974 (with its worst results until then since 1945 and provided that Edward Heath was not re-elected as party leader) and change of preferences in society in parallel with the depletion of the effectiveness of Keynesian policies.

Thus, although always stand out Thatcher's leadership in changing their society, the truth is that it is partly (and how could it be otherwise) a product of a prior change in British society. The abandonment of consensus on Keynesian policies and the welfare state will post-war brewing since the early 1970s within the Conservative Party. There is no doubt that during this period falls the support of social policies between the voter British media. According to surveys, between 1974 and the rise of Thatcher, the rejection of social spending rose significantly from 34% to 50%. Like what happened in the United States Ronald Reagan, the data show that rejection of the social spending had become popular among the public before the Conservatives did with the government.

Source: Taylor-Gooby, 1985

Consequences. Thatcher gave us a new way of understanding the relationship between state and market in many ways, but best known by most public opinion is their lack of sympathy for the welfare state and social policies. Indeed, the data show that it is in this period when the growth of social spending reaches its lowest level. But despite the prevailing opinion among the left, Thatcher just conducted a cost containment and, in fact, the cuts were concentrated in very few games (and in particular housing it is estimated that spending fell about 11 percent under his first term).

source: OECD

Legacy. But the highlight of the governments of Margaret Thatcher was, without doubt, your gentle change coordinates of British politics, drawing not only the ideology of his party but also of its main competitor, the Labour Party. See the chart below:

Graphic: negative values \u200b\u200b(left) and positive values \u200b\u200b(right). Comparative Manifesto Project data

The Comparative Manifesto Project data (analyzing the ideological content of election programs of political parties) show how the arrival of Thatcher Consevador Party begins a long journey to the right. In fact, the party in 1987 (Thatcher's last election) is the most conservative of all post-war history. In addition, there are many who say that Thatcher was able to drag Labour: Tony Blair took an important part of ideological legacy of Thatcher and the Labour Party stood in consevadoras positions since 1945.

Given the acceptance by the Labour Party from Thatcher's legacy, it is not surprising that some summarizing what happened in the past three decades with metaphors like:

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(i) Where There is discord, May we bring Kafka in Florida

30 years ago today the coming to power of one of the most outstanding politicians of the second half of the century: Margaret Thatcher. In his memoir includes his arrival that day at 10 Downing Street:

Denis and I left Buckingham Palace in the prime ministerial car: my previous car Had Already Gone to Mr Callaghan. As we Drove out-through the Palace gates, Denis Noticed That this time the Guards salute me. In Those innocent days before security Had to Become Tighter so much for fear of Terrorism, crowds of well-wishers, sightseers, press and camera crews waiting for us in Were Street Dowining itself. The crowds extended all the way up Downing Street and Whitehall Into out. Denis and I got out of the car and Walker Towards them .... "

The rest is picked up these fantastic and moving images representing the beginning of a new political era in both the UK and in other developed democracies.

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harmony

Recently, on a trip to Miami, I was talking with a local attorney and he said the bizarre case of "sex offenders." Florida law requiring the defendants not to leave your county, and stay over 800 meters of any meeting place for children, are schools, parks or day.

In the case of Miami-Dade County, that only leaves the little island under a bridge linking Miami to Miami Beach Island, so that dozens of men and young people live in crowded stores campaign pending trial it may take at least several months and sometimes years. Furthermore, there are rare cases of young people who were 18 when his girlfriend was 17 and ended up here because of strict laws against relations with "minor."

In the frame of mind, men have self-organized as a community, choosing a leader and set standards and regulations to subsist on the little island.

He told me my lawyer friend last year, with the arrival of tropical storms, had to flee because the island was flooded. The police, to check the area the next morning, noted that the men were "under water" and led them not to stand trial on the island. The judge, obviously, put her hands to her head as Kafkaesque situation.

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Spanish democracy consideration

How English democracy has been functioning in recent years? Has the corruption? Are we in numbers greater than our environment? What are the main debates about regional funding? How do citizens in their democracy? Does the electoral system to improve its quality?

Here are some of the questions a group of researchers try to answer the next 8, 9 and 10 July at the Summer University of Teruel. Teachers: Belén Barreiro (CIS), Juan Manuel Eguiagaray (F. Alternatives), Joaquín Estefanía (The Country), Braulio Gómez (CSIC), Javier Gómez de Agüero (CIS), Víctor Lapuente (U. Gothenburg), Sandra León (CEPC), Ferran Martínez (CIDE, Mexico), Lluís Orriols (Oxford U.), Alberto Penadés (U. Salamanca). Master of ceremonies: Ignacio Urquizu (F. Alternatives)

Would anyone dare? XXV Edition, Summer University of Teruel, 2009, 8 to July 10, 2009

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A government crisis for a government in crisis

El Pais on line includes the following headline on the current crisis of government, Zapatero worn flanks strengthens the government . There is no doubt that, in effect, the dismissal of ministers and Magdalena Álvarez and Pedro Solbes is a potential boost the image of Zapatero's government, already too damaged after only one year of training.

However, if (and only if) we measure the wear of the ministers from his popularity in the polls, the current government crisis is not the best that could have made Zapatero. The 5 lower than it would have reported greater benefits to its image are (according to the CIS): Magdalena Álvarez (of course), Bibiana Aido, Beatriz Corredor, Miguel Pedro Solbes and Sebastian. With the removal of these ministers had Zapatero succeeded in raising the average score of 4.2 government a 4.6 (of course, not including assessments of the new ministers have not met yet). In contrast, waiting to note that the English give Pepe Blanco y cia., The current government crisis leaves the executive with a very slight improvement in their grade point average (of 4.4).

Thus, if the government function as a reality show, the audience had decided not to continue in some government ministers have finally consegir maintain your portfolio. But of course there are other more substantive reasons that justify the names of the ministers affected by a government crisis. Therefore, this entry serves as a mere curiosity and not as a critical basis for the decision of the President ... lest then return back to The excess carpet sympathize with government opinion polls.