I leave my collaboration on Public , I hope to make up my absolute silence during this election campaign.
7-J, "again right?
The victory of the PP in the elections of 7-J should not be interpreted as the beginning of a new electoral majority in Spain, as claimed Mayor Ear from the balcony of Genoa on election night last Sunday. The people's victory was clear, but not compelling enough to draw reliable conclusions from what would have happened in a general election.
The truth is that on Sunday the English did not vote exactly as if it were a simulation of the general, mainly because the continuity of government was not involved. Therefore, citizens could leave the strategic calculus on one side and "vote with your heart," as proposed by IU during the election campaign. On the other hand, those dissatisfied with the Government could make a light punishment vote: it was the perfect opportunity for those who wanted to send a protest but it was thereby contributing to a change of government.
This pattern different from that generated when voting, both in Spain and the rest of the EU, the major parties and, in particular those in the Government usually harvested worse in European elections. In our country, the party that occupies the Moncloa tends to lose in these elections an average of 3.3 percentage points to the nearest general, a figure very similar to that of other EU countries. The only exception to this regularity was held at the 2004 European, most likely because they were in full moon Honey Zapatero's first term. The results of 7-J represent a return to normal voting patterns unfavorable to the Government that usually occurs in such elections.
This time, the protest vote has been widespread throughout Europe. All heads of government of the 15 old EU members have seen their parties retreated with respect to their national elections. The electoral decline of the ruling parties in Europe has been, on average, slightly more than 8 percentage points. It is, in effect, results that respond to traditional anti-government bias "of the European elections. Still, the severity of punishment leaves no doubt that the economic crisis also has been an adverse factor for all EU governments.
Given this context as unfavorable to the European ruling parties, the PSOE has been known particularly graceful exit from the situation. This time the socialist government has seen its electoral support by 5 percentage points. This is, without doubt, decreasing more than the average loss of 3.3 points from previous races in Europe, but punishment is significantly lower than most neighboring countries. It is therefore an acceptable loss to the Government if we take into account the poor performance of their European counterparts and the devastating effects of the economic crisis on employment in our country. In
Indeed, part of the descent of the PSOE in respect of last year's general due to the demobilization of the electorate in Andalusia and Catalonia, and the significant decline in the latter region, where the socialist vote has fallen by nearly 10 percentage points. Catalan socialists have always been very adept at capturing the vote of fear when the PP is threatening to win the election. That is why the PSC has insisted the European elections in reissue the anti-PP successful campaign that gave such good results last year. This time the PSC has tried to frighten the Catalan electorate filling the streets with posters showing pictures of Aznar, Berlusconi and even former President Bush. But Catalonia has shown that the threat of a conservative European Parliament does not have the same rejection that the threat of a tenant in the Moncloa popular. Although this time the PSC has not achieved the desired results, would be a mistake to conclude that an anti-PP also fail in a hypothetical general election which decided the national government.
On the other hand, Izquierda Unida retains its two MEPs and the same percentage of votes in the 2008 general. This stability should not, however, blind us to the failure that these results represent the formation of the left. IU has missed the extraordinary opportunity offered him such a priori elections. Not only the single district electoral system reduces the incentive to vote strategically in many areas of Spain, but experience in other European countries shows that the minority parties, ideologically more extreme and more Eurosceptic positions, are often the favorite refuge plenty of discontent and protest vote in such elections. However, UI has been unable to articulate a strategy to attract potential punishment vote derived from the economic crisis and growing loss of trust in European institutions in our country. At this point, and hardly surprising. The history of UTI is missed opportunities, perhaps we are simply dealing with a chapter, but leaves many of us a real taste of epilogue.
The margin of victory of the PP can not assess the 7-J as the consolidation of a new majority in Spain, but it may be a cyclical change in the internal battle PP. Sunday's results definitely shielding Mariano Rajoy as the candidate for the upcoming elections. But avoid this noise that remains in the party? Lluis
Orriols is a political scientist and researcher at the University of Oxford
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